Africa United Through Infrastructure: Aligning Markets, Transmission and Trust

As the African energy sector converges in Cape Town for AEF 2025 under the theme Africa United, we are asked to think beyond national borders—and beyond business-as-usual. The message is clear: energy security, resilience, and access are no longer purely domestic goals. They are shared regional challenges—and shared opportunities.

From transmission investment to energy justice, from sovereign debt risks to the rise of regional electricity markets, the conversations this year point to one simple truth: no single country can address Africa’s power needs alone.

AEF 2025: A Moment of Convergence

AEF’s focus topics this year—such as RSA’s Independent Power Transmission (IPT) Programme, regional transmission planning, debt and macroeconomic risks, and the emergence of energy markets—are not isolated themes. They are interlinked components of a much larger picture.

A few critical questions emerge from the agenda:

• How do we scale investment in transmission without overburdening sovereign balance sheets?
• How do we support utilities to remain central—while unlocking the agility and liquidity that private actors bring?
• And how do we turn generation and transmission into investable, tradable infrastructure across borders?

These are questions we at GreenCo grapple with every day.

The Transmission Challenge—and Opportunity

South Africa’s IPT Programme is a commendable step forward. It highlights what many of us across the continent are facing: constrained public financing, a pressing need to integrate renewable energy, and a structural shift toward market-led electricity systems.

The data speaks volumes:

• 14,500 km of new lines, 210 transformers, and 56 GW of new capacity are required by 2034 in SA alone.
• SADC regional demand is set to grow 8–14x over the next 30 years, far outpacing South Africa’s domestic trajectory.
• Sovereign guarantees have already inflated contingent liabilities in RSA by over $37 billion—a path we cannot afford to repeat.

SAPP Regional Demand Growth

Integrated Planning: Generation, Transmission, and Trading

AEF’s transmission and trading sessions ask: How do we bridge the generation-transmission gap? How do we turn energy into a regional asset class?

The answer lies in integration—of infrastructure, of revenue models, and of regulatory frameworks.

GreenCo’s approach is grounded in three principles:

1. Build with utilities: We support public utilities in structuring and monetising generation and transmission—backstopping risk and providing demand and supply certainty across borders.
2. Trade regionally: We enable electricity to move from surplus to deficit zones across borders, using SAPP and soon, SAWEM, to structure competitive transactions.
3. Finance flexibly: We bring innovative off balance sheet financial structuring to facilitate new generation coming on board.

Existing and Planned Transmission Interconnectors with Indicative Internal Country Strengthening

Why Markets Matter

Markets are not just mechanisms for price discovery. When carefully regulated and regionally aligned, they are instruments for development, efficiency, and climate alignment.

• SAWEM’s launch in RSA will mark a milestone: enabling third-party access, unbundled trading, and more transparent pricing for services - balancing etc.
• A stronger SAPP—with more private participation—means African-generated electrons can finally move fluidly across borders and be valued fairly.
• Combined with cost-reflective tariffs, this evolution makes merchant revenue models an added revenue model viable for infrastructure like transmission lines, storage systems, and hybrid plants.

For investors, this means reduced perception of sovereign dependency. For utilities, it means new revenue streams without needing to carry all the system risk. For consumers, it means more reliable and competitively priced energy.

From Debt to Resilience: Rethinking Risk

AEF’s sessions on macroeconomic risks and currency challenges raise urgent questions about how we de-risk investment in a fiscally constrained continent.

GreenCo supports the call for:

• Regional monetisation of infrastructure, to pool demand and reduce single-country exposure
• Off balance sheet financial designs, allowing infrastructure to be structured off balance sheet
• New public-private mechanisms, ie hybrid revenue models that combine contracted capacity payments with merchant income via regional markets

We must reduce the burden on public balance sheets—without reducing the public sector’s role.

Therefore, could the future lie in a hybrid revenue model—where infrastructure earns both a contracted, capacity-based income from a regulated buyer, and a merchant-based revenue stream via regional trading platforms like SAWEM and SAPP?

Under such a model:

• Primary revenues would come from capacity payments backed by national planning frameworks (e.g. NTCSA contracts aligned with the IRP and TDP).
• Secondary (merchant) revenues could flow from wholesale electricity market participation, congestion pricing, wheeling charges from industrial users, or bilateral cross-border contracts.

If structured appropriately, this model could:

• Enhance bankability through revenue diversification
• Enable off-balance-sheet classification under IMF fiscal risk rules
• Provide resilience, allowing the asset to continue generating income even if one revenue stream falters

It is not a silver bullet, but a well-designed hybrid structure could become a foundational tool for de-risking transmission and generation investments—particularly those linked to inter-connectors or high-volume renewable corridors.

This is an open question and a collective challenge:

Are we ready—as utilities, regulators, DFIs, and private actors—to embrace dual-revenue regional infrastructure planning as the new standard for scalable, investable energy systems across Southern Africa?

Let’s Redefine Partnership

Energy justice and Africa’s role in decarbonisation—also core to the AEF programme—can only be realised if utilities, traders, financiers, and regulators work in concert.

GreenCo is not a disruptor. We are a collaborator. We bring:

• Liquidity, structure, and regional reach
• Aligned incentives with national utilities
• A platform to unlock VRE generation and trade electrons efficiently

We believe the energy transition must be inclusive, pragmatic, and regionally optimised—built on shared infrastructure, open-access grids, and transparent pricing.

Recommendation – An integrated Approach

A Regional Vision, A Shared Commitment

To unlock Southern Africa’s full energy potential, we must align:

• Generation planning with grid expansion
• Trading frameworks with real-time market mechanisms
• Public investment strategies with non-sovereign capital flows
• Utility viability with customer affordability

The IPT Programme, the 2026 SAWEM market launch, and the growing reach of SAPP provide the foundations. But the real work begins with how we connect them—and who we bring along.

GreenCo stands ready to contribute as a trusted partner to governments, utilities, financiers, project developers and most importantly our customers.

Let’s use this week to start conversations that lead to coordination.

Because if we are truly Africa United, then we must plan together, build together, and trade together.

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